The SAPP's motion of no confidence will not bring down Dato Abdullah's Government even if the opposition were to throw in their votes behind SAPP. The likelihood is that the opposition will not. They know it would be an exercise in futility. In any case the Speaker will not allow the motion or debate on it. So it looks like the SAPP is going to get nowhere.
But Dato Seri Abdullah and the Chorus Line should not gloat. They should realise that every time Dato Seri Abdullah demonstrates his grip over UMNO and Barisan Nasional, everytime the Chorus Line trotted their piece, they evoke disgust among the public.
That was what happened before the 2008 General Elections. From the chorus of support and the apparent lack of adverse criticisms against the Government of Dato Seri Abdullah, it looked as if the BN was popular and would romp home with the 2004 kind of results.
But actually the muzzled members of UMNO and UMNO supporters and also the members of the other BN parties as well as the public harboured a strong dislike of what they saw as self-serving sycophants. When they showed their lack of gratefulness for their good fortune to be given the right to govern they angered a lot of people. Ingrates are never popular in any society.
UMNO may have 3.5 million members but even if all of them voted there would still be constituencies where they would not win. Their success depended much on non-member supporters. Dato Seri Abdullah had no way of bribing or threatening them.
He could not summon them to be told to support BN candidates or himself.
These people had become alienated from the BN. And the muzzled ordinary UMNO and BN members had also been alienated.
Assuming that Dato Seri Abdullah could control the 3,000 UMNO branches, the 200 UMNO divisions and the 2,500 specially selected representatives at the UMNO General Assembly there would still be more than a million ordinary members of UMNO who could not be bribed or threatened.
Every time Dato Seri Abdullah came up with ridiculous policies and commit administrative and political flip-flop the Chorus Lines, the Supreme Council and the Division heads may shout their support but the majority of the rank and file would become more disgusted. And they would resolve not to vote for UMNO or the BN.
So what will happen? Unable to do anything of consequence now these alienated people can only wait for the next election as they did for the 2008 Elections. If the results of the 12th General Election is anything to go by, the 13th General Election will be even worse than the 12th General Election for the BN.
Umno will lose and lose badly. Dato Seri Abdullah can blame the voters for sabotage but as UMNO and BN are unwilling to take heed of the voters' displeasure in 2008, the only choice they have will be to rid themselves of Dato Seri Abdullah through destroying UMNO and the BN.
Its too bad but what else can they do.
There will be no rewards for the Chorus Line and the other sycophants, including Dato Seri Najib when the BN loses to the opposition coalition.
Is this scenario likely? Well, did Abdullah and Co. think the 2008 losses were likely before they decided to hold the elections?